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reThinkFuture

Page history last edited by RealEstateCafe 11 years, 4 months ago

NAR Strategic Planning Session:  

Orlando, FL

 

Intro video from IBM highlighting societal changes

 

22-23 year olds know more about trends that are changing the world

 

We all have heretics, they are not your problem, they are probably the start of your solution!

 

For all of the things that technology can do, it cannot make our choices for us

 

Tweet embed

 

#2

 

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INFO GRAPHIC TRENDS

 

Homes underwater

 

More people find homes on internet

 

Fewest active Realtors

 

Median income dropping

 

Smaller speciality firms growing

 

FSBOs rebounding?

 

Zillow

 

State of industry

 

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Three scenarios

 

Industry scenarios:  2 to 5 year scenarios

Ostrich

Beauty & Beast

Jungle

 

Society scenarios

Two scenarios:  5 to 10 year scenarios

The American Dream RECAPTURED

The NEW American Dream

 

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Focal question

 

In an ever-changing world, what is the future of the real estate industry in 5 to 10 years?

 

How will this impact:

 

Consumers, including buyers and sellers?

 

Agents, brokers, and companies?

 

NAR, state and local associations?

 

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Why 5 to 10 year window?

 

Will be times when you are uncomfortable... 

Treat each others with respect

 

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Starter question:

 

What crossroads is the industry at right now?

 

BW:  Entering a PostMLS era

 

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First three scenarios

Interplay between technology, consumer behavior, 

Slower, incremental changes to rep

This scenarios help us prepare for Game Changing scenarios

 

Last two scenarios

Look at societal changes and potential role for agents and industry as a whole

What is the future we wish to shape vs what is the future we wish to serve?

 

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Text question:

What is the one word that describes how you FEEL about the industry

 

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Ostrich scenario

 

Association leadership

 

Zillow and Trulia are 

Zillow has more Facebook fans that Trulia, and top three real estate web sites

 

Internet competitors empower consumers

 

2012 Ostrich scenario

Slowdown will wear down new entrants

 

In reality industry already changing

Lobbying scandal against superpacs

 

Members left local associations

Could this have been 

 

Unfortunate that most innovation occurred outside the industry

 

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Video:  Industry association from 2017

2012:  Industry talk about how all of these new technologies in the hands of consumers will change the game

 

Things will return to the status quo

We've seen these cycles before

As change agents were preparing for new days, we association leaders were just waiting for the tide to come back in

 

With experience as our guide, our slogan became give it time

 

You can't tell the size of the wave until it hits the shore

2015 hit like Tsunami

No denying things are changing, they've already changed forever!

 

Commissions were declining, 

Members frustrated with us for being slow moving

Not like you need a membership to succeed

 

Not since Moses parted the Red Sea, has there been such an Exodus

Crammed an entire brokerage system into a Facebook app

 

Would we have done better with more future embracing, forward thinking strategies?  Sometimes things get worse to teach us it is up to us to make things better!

 

OSTRICH DISCUSSION

 

Gentleman from Canadian association, where they had a national MLS, described the scenario planning process his organization did last year

 

Most of industry leadership has been in control for three decades, not open to change, resist change

 

Bring in new people, be open to change

 

Leadership needs to embrace technology

 

How to identify identify which technologies will survive, be transformative?

 

BW:  HouseLogic is a brilliant step into the future, repositioning industry to and Realtors to be involved in the housing cycle

 

BW:  Two national trade associations for alternative fee real estate agents

 

Sayzu recapturing words

Will be sent a link in a week to see everything that everyone has 

 

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Strategic Planning Process

 

Multiple possible futures, NOT a single future

 

Hypothesis:  They are stories, not PREDICTIONS

 

Customized to content, NOT "off the shelf"

 

Living stories, NOT static reports

 

Designed to STRETCH our mental maps, NOT designed to reinforce certainty

 

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SCENARIO #2:  Beauty & The Beach

 

Examples of evidence

 

The Future is already here, but it is NOT evenly distributed

 

Frienemies:  You are friends with them, but sometimes they make the best collaborative efforts

 

Example:  Zillow and a big board come together

 

Zillow and Yelp come together to do agent reviews

 

Could it be that Google and Apple do something together, eg. Siri goes into RE plans

 

There is a sesmic shift happening in the industry

 

BW:  Too much us against them in that comment, need to find that there is romance, identify basis of mutual attraction

 

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The Game Changer group:  

Different interests and lots of egos

 

You're just going to stroll into this real estate industry 

In the rainforest, in two square acres there are 60 different species of ants, cooperating & competing

 

Not my DATA versus YOUR data that wins, but my data PLUS your data

 

Use the momentum of planners

 

Revenues for BIG DATA companies are about $1 MILLLION DOLLARS per employee!

 

Game Changer scenario:  Use big data to know my prospects better than they know themselves? 

 

Reps the Harvard Lifestyle, other life styles

 

What's coming up in the next 5 years, 

For now, it's good to know that we are the ones who shaped our destiny

 

Collaborative Partnership:

What if Trulia merged with Facebook?

What if Trulia and Zillow merged with Facebook?

 

What could we use to strive and thrive in this market?

 

What actions might we (industry or agent?) take to thrive?

 

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JUNGLE SCENARIO:

Everyone from themselves in a 

22 million SHARED households in US by 2010, an 11.4% increase

1.2 increase in households in same 

 

Could an entire industry be replaced overnight?

 

Internet players, financial services, mortgage

 

People carried more about re

 

Lease-R-ship

 

Agents turned upside-down 

Some agents muttered about obsolence

 

2016

Consumers bypassed citizen advocacy movement

The OLD guard in the RE industry were among the main casualties!

 

100% of room thought that worst-case scenario is plausible!

 

2017:

Mary moved to Austin, TX -- Plausible?

What actions might we take here in 2012 to thrive in the jungle?

 

Morning coffee

Mom & pop coffee shop could not compete

That's what happened with Mom & Pop RE companies too

Outside giants looked at 

 

Big data, deep pockets, they came ready to in

Take eHarmony for example, what

13.5M clients

Making couples, help couples

Their love connection:

House & Spouse program?  

Open up housing as a future

Shared housing, pour efficiency

 

Collaborative consumption:  People choosing access, over ownership?  Was anyone surprised when we saw shared upscale housing?

 

The matches were there, just waiting to be found

 

The idea of the commune has been rediscovered

Am I getting cold or tingling, with excitement in room

 

After it is sold, average powertool is only used 6 minutes

 

If a flood of new players entered the real estate market, what actions might we take?  

 

Embrace change

 

Old vs young:  

 

@Joe

Leaving his brokerage in a few weeks to start his own brokerage

We can change on a dime

 

Adapted and innovative

 

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American Dream RECAPTURED?

 

What does the American Dream recaptured mean?

More investors, more hotbed, 

10years 

Times look good, innovation

Pursuing the dream has unintended consequences

 

Innovation hotbeds give growth

 

Energy gas discovery keeps 

Unlike those of the babyboomers

 

But what is the price of pursuing the American 

Is collecting and pursuing the American Dream

Between haves and have NOTS, 

 

Multi-million dollar

10 years into the future

What is happening and why?

 

RECAPTURED American Dream? #DIY #consumers dont want to be captured, or empowered? Held hostage to mortgages, or NEW American Dream? #rethinkfuture

 

 

 

 

 

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