NAR Strategic Planning Session:
Orlando, FL
Intro video from IBM highlighting societal changes
22-23 year olds know more about trends that are changing the world
We all have heretics, they are not your problem, they are probably the start of your solution!
For all of the things that technology can do, it cannot make our choices for us
Tweet embed
#2
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INFO GRAPHIC TRENDS
Homes underwater
More people find homes on internet
Fewest active Realtors
Median income dropping
Smaller speciality firms growing
FSBOs rebounding?
Zillow
State of industry
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Three scenarios
Industry scenarios: 2 to 5 year scenarios
Ostrich
Beauty & Beast
Jungle
Society scenarios
Two scenarios: 5 to 10 year scenarios
The American Dream RECAPTURED
The NEW American Dream
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Focal question
In an ever-changing world, what is the future of the real estate industry in 5 to 10 years?
How will this impact:
Consumers, including buyers and sellers?
Agents, brokers, and companies?
NAR, state and local associations?
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Why 5 to 10 year window?
Will be times when you are uncomfortable...
Treat each others with respect
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Starter question:
What crossroads is the industry at right now?
BW: Entering a PostMLS era
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First three scenarios
Interplay between technology, consumer behavior,
Slower, incremental changes to rep
This scenarios help us prepare for Game Changing scenarios
Last two scenarios
Look at societal changes and potential role for agents and industry as a whole
What is the future we wish to shape vs what is the future we wish to serve?
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Text question:
What is the one word that describes how you FEEL about the industry
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Ostrich scenario
Association leadership
Zillow and Trulia are
Zillow has more Facebook fans that Trulia, and top three real estate web sites
Internet competitors empower consumers
2012 Ostrich scenario
Slowdown will wear down new entrants
In reality industry already changing
Lobbying scandal against superpacs
Members left local associations
Could this have been
Unfortunate that most innovation occurred outside the industry
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Video: Industry association from 2017
2012: Industry talk about how all of these new technologies in the hands of consumers will change the game
Things will return to the status quo
We've seen these cycles before
As change agents were preparing for new days, we association leaders were just waiting for the tide to come back in
With experience as our guide, our slogan became give it time
You can't tell the size of the wave until it hits the shore
2015 hit like Tsunami
No denying things are changing, they've already changed forever!
Commissions were declining,
Members frustrated with us for being slow moving
Not like you need a membership to succeed
Not since Moses parted the Red Sea, has there been such an Exodus
Crammed an entire brokerage system into a Facebook app
Would we have done better with more future embracing, forward thinking strategies? Sometimes things get worse to teach us it is up to us to make things better!
OSTRICH DISCUSSION
Gentleman from Canadian association, where they had a national MLS, described the scenario planning process his organization did last year
Most of industry leadership has been in control for three decades, not open to change, resist change
Bring in new people, be open to change
Leadership needs to embrace technology
How to identify identify which technologies will survive, be transformative?
BW: HouseLogic is a brilliant step into the future, repositioning industry to and Realtors to be involved in the housing cycle
BW: Two national trade associations for alternative fee real estate agents
Sayzu recapturing words
Will be sent a link in a week to see everything that everyone has
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Strategic Planning Process
Multiple possible futures, NOT a single future
Hypothesis: They are stories, not PREDICTIONS
Customized to content, NOT "off the shelf"
Living stories, NOT static reports
Designed to STRETCH our mental maps, NOT designed to reinforce certainty
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SCENARIO #2: Beauty & The Beach
Examples of evidence
The Future is already here, but it is NOT evenly distributed
Frienemies: You are friends with them, but sometimes they make the best collaborative efforts
Example: Zillow and a big board come together
Zillow and Yelp come together to do agent reviews
Could it be that Google and Apple do something together, eg. Siri goes into RE plans
There is a sesmic shift happening in the industry
BW: Too much us against them in that comment, need to find that there is romance, identify basis of mutual attraction
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The Game Changer group:
Different interests and lots of egos
You're just going to stroll into this real estate industry
In the rainforest, in two square acres there are 60 different species of ants, cooperating & competing
Not my DATA versus YOUR data that wins, but my data PLUS your data
Use the momentum of planners
Revenues for BIG DATA companies are about $1 MILLLION DOLLARS per employee!
Game Changer scenario: Use big data to know my prospects better than they know themselves?
Reps the Harvard Lifestyle, other life styles
What's coming up in the next 5 years,
For now, it's good to know that we are the ones who shaped our destiny
Collaborative Partnership:
What if Trulia merged with Facebook?
What if Trulia and Zillow merged with Facebook?
What could we use to strive and thrive in this market?
What actions might we (industry or agent?) take to thrive?
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JUNGLE SCENARIO:
Everyone from themselves in a
22 million SHARED households in US by 2010, an 11.4% increase
1.2 increase in households in same
Could an entire industry be replaced overnight?
Internet players, financial services, mortgage
People carried more about re
Lease-R-ship
Agents turned upside-down
Some agents muttered about obsolence
2016
Consumers bypassed citizen advocacy movement
The OLD guard in the RE industry were among the main casualties!
100% of room thought that worst-case scenario is plausible!
2017:
Mary moved to Austin, TX -- Plausible?
What actions might we take here in 2012 to thrive in the jungle?
Morning coffee
Mom & pop coffee shop could not compete
That's what happened with Mom & Pop RE companies too
Outside giants looked at
Big data, deep pockets, they came ready to in
Take eHarmony for example, what
13.5M clients
Making couples, help couples
Their love connection:
House & Spouse program?
Open up housing as a future
Shared housing, pour efficiency
Collaborative consumption: People choosing access, over ownership? Was anyone surprised when we saw shared upscale housing?
The matches were there, just waiting to be found
The idea of the commune has been rediscovered
Am I getting cold or tingling, with excitement in room
After it is sold, average powertool is only used 6 minutes
If a flood of new players entered the real estate market, what actions might we take?
Embrace change
Old vs young:
@Joe
Leaving his brokerage in a few weeks to start his own brokerage
We can change on a dime
Adapted and innovative
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American Dream RECAPTURED?
What does the American Dream recaptured mean?
More investors, more hotbed,
10years
Times look good, innovation
Pursuing the dream has unintended consequences
Innovation hotbeds give growth
Energy gas discovery keeps
Unlike those of the babyboomers
But what is the price of pursuing the American
Is collecting and pursuing the American Dream
Between haves and have NOTS,
Multi-million dollar
10 years into the future
What is happening and why?
RECAPTURED American Dream? #DIY #consumers dont want to be captured, or empowered? Held hostage to mortgages, or NEW American Dream? #rethinkfuture
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